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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 13 games
46%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
75%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Saksa · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
297 picks · 176 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 396 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
277 picks · 542 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
254 picks · 88 bans
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
244 picks · 256 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
227 picks · 382 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
224 picks · 318 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:16
Evil Geniuses 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 21:23.
Game 2prediction correct27:31
Evil Geniuses 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2