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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quincy Crewwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1013 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 591 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
349 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
344 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
331 picks · 529 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
306 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 285 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:11
Evil Geniuses 64%Quincy Crew 36%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 33:44.
Game 2prediction missed31:22
Evil Geniuses 64%Quincy Crew 36%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 51:29.
Game 3prediction missed29:13
Evil Geniuses 64%Quincy Crew 36%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 45:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultQuincy Crew 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3