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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 18 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 16 games
75%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 16 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 12 games
83%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
76%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
84%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 18 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
969 picks · 662 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 471 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 938 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
556 picks · 439 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 525 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 347 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1108 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
476 picks · 348 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:23
Evil Geniuses 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerPakazs
49% · 22 games53% · 232 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
39% · 63 games50% · 42 games
Lone DruidArteezy
Lone Druid
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
53% · 235 games49% · 344 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Marci
MarciMatthew
53% · 235 games45% · 127 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
55% · 190 games
Game 2prediction missed43:39
Evil Geniuses 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 52:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPakazs
50% · 52 games64% · 75 games
LifestealerArteezy
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
46% · 60 games48% · 223 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
46% · 291 game49% · 342 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
46% · 105 games56% · 200 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
46% · 332 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2