The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Soniqsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 384 bans
Marci
423 picks · 644 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 461 bans
Puck
283 picks · 690 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 395 bans
Undying
252 picks · 447 bans
Winter Wyvern
252 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 820 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:21
Evil Geniuses 58%Soniqs 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Soniqs in 32:16.
Game 2prediction missed20:5
Evil Geniuses 58%Soniqs 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Soniqs in 23:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2