The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Chenoften banned
Wij · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 6 games
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Hyde · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
588 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
495 picks · 556 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 215 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 546 bans
Nature's Prophet
351 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:31
Evil Geniuses 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaPakazs
Spectre23savage
Void SpiritChris Luck
Queen of PainMikoto
DawnbreakerWisper
TuskJabz
Treant ProtectorPanda
RubickQ
LionMatthew
Elder TitanOli
Game 2prediction missed11:31
Evil Geniuses 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPakazs
Nature's ProphetJabz
LeshracWisper
Pudge23savage
Spirit BreakerChris Luck
ZeusMikoto
RubickMatthew
TuskQ
Treant ProtectorPanda
RikiOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2