DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Rubick
Q · 22 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 22 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 585 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 525 bans
Doom
554 picks · 1100 bans
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1299 bans
Techies
494 picks · 552 bans
Pangolier
468 picks · 954 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1122 bans
Enchantress
452 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Evil Geniuses 60%Talon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaPakazs
Phantom Lancer23savage
UnderlordChris Luck
PangolierJabz
MarsWisper
Void SpiritMikoto
UndyingPanda
TechiesQ
LionMatthew
PugnaOli
Game 2prediction correct25:17
Evil Geniuses 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPakazs
Chaos Knight23savage
BatriderChris Luck
TimbersawJabz
BrewmasterWisper
WindrangerMikoto
Shadow DemonPanda
ClinkzQ
Skywrath MageMatthew
RubickOli
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 72%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2