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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 9 games
44%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 7 games
71%

Team Aster

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 19 games
68%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 11 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
LaNm · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
308 picks · 173 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
282 picks · 538 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
278 picks · 407 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
272 picks · 98 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 373 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 254 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
229 picks · 328 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
209 picks · 239 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Evil Geniuses 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:47.
Game 2prediction missed18:24
Evil Geniuses 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 62%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2