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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
0%

Team DogChamp

Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 560 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
345 picks · 400 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 672 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 433 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
290 picks · 369 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
289 picks · 343 bans
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
260 picks · 557 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 24%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:48
Evil Geniuses 89%Team DogChamp 11%
The model gave 89% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 48:30.
Game 2prediction missed33:4
Evil Geniuses 89%Team DogChamp 11%
The model gave 89% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 16:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 89%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2