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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 28 games
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 389 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
439 picks · 672 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
286 picks · 689 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
266 picks · 475 bans
56%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 510 bans
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 333 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:43
Evil Geniuses 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:05:21.
Game 2prediction correct20:13
Evil Geniuses 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2