Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 32 games
Rubick
Matthew · 31 game
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 23 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
503 picks · 332 bans
Doom
453 picks · 978 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 860 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1012 bans
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
Evil Geniuses 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion CommanderPakazs
Monkey KingYatoro
PangolierChris Luck
LeshracLarl
BatriderWisper
MarsCollapse
ClinkzMatthew
ChenMiposhka
Skywrath MagePanda
ClockwerkMira
Game 2prediction missed21:31
Evil Geniuses 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPakazs
TimbersawCollapse
LycanWisper
MedusaYatoro
SnapfireChris Luck
PuckLarl
RubickMatthew
BatriderMira
VenomancerPanda
SilencerMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2