Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Cutloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 8 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 6 games
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Bane
Wij · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Thiolicor · 4 games
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 3 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dnm · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 297 bans
Queen of Pain
414 picks · 521 bans
Weaver
372 picks · 543 bans
Mars
360 picks · 503 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 483 bans
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 498 bans
Wraith King
254 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength69% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:37
Evil Geniuses 83%The Cut 17%
The model gave 83% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 57:00.
Game 2prediction missed47:22
Evil Geniuses 83%The Cut 17%
The model gave 83% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 35:59.
Game 3prediction missed13:29
Evil Geniuses 83%The Cut 17%
The model gave 83% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 30:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 83%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3