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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 14 games
43%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
75%

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 10 games
30%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
17%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
MoOz · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
301 picks · 174 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
278 picks · 547 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
253 picks · 89 bans
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
230 picks · 390 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
225 picks · 315 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 13%
Hero pool strength60% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:18
Evil Geniuses 85%Thunder Awaken 15%
The model gave 85% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 23:56.
Game 2prediction missed28:36
Evil Geniuses 85%Thunder Awaken 15%
The model gave 85% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 55:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 85%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2