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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 16 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 12 games
83%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
92%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 10 games
90%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
89%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
947 picks · 637 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 531 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
506 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1070 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
459 picks · 341 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
Evil Geniuses 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
47% · 135 games48% · 87 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
45% · 352 games52% · 134 games
Keeper of the Lightbryle-
Keeper of the Light
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
49% · 279 games56% · 258 games
Nature's Prophetkasane
Nature's Prophet
Lion
LionMatthew
51% · 45 games55% · 173 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
50% · 121 game49% · 280 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct28:32
Evil Geniuses 50%TSM 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePakazs
52% · 229 games64% · 43 games
Anti-MageTimado
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangerChris Luck
52% · 43 games62% · 79 games
Dark Seerkasane
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireWisper
41% · 379 games48% · 373 games
Death Prophetbryle-
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMatthew
50% · 223 games47% · 517 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
51% · 334 games40% · 196 games
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2