Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Mirana
Thiolicor · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Tavo · 9 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 8 games
Wildcard Gaming
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Dark Willow
The Warden · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Sunlight · 1 game
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 512 bans
Snapfire
312 picks · 177 bans
Bane
301 picks · 237 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 647 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 730 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:26
Evil Geniuses 82%Wildcard Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:31.
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Evil Geniuses 82%Wildcard Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 82%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2