Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 8 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 6 games
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Tavo · 4 games
Wildcard Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 5 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Rubick
The Warden · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
Gyrocopter
DaaD- · 3 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 278 bans
Queen of Pain
396 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
359 picks · 512 bans
Mars
346 picks · 493 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 477 bans
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 472 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 337 bans
Grimstroke
243 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 37%
Hero pool strength69% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:34
Evil Geniuses 80%Wildcard Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 48:21.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Evil Geniuses 80%Wildcard Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 23:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 80%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2