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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 33 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 27 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
48%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 25 games
52%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 15 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ghost · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 688 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
517 picks · 342 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
443 picks · 960 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 345 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
387 picks · 995 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 858 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:26
Evil Geniuses 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 54:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
63% · 115 games53% · 7 games
MeepoJT-
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
49% · 158 games38% · 137 games
WindrangerPaparazi
Windranger
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
47% · 94 games49% · 123 games
SlarkGhost
Slark
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMatthew
52% · 106 games55% · 55 games
Elder TitanXinQ
Elder Titan
Lich
LichPanda
53% · 102 games50% · 253 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct35:22
Evil Geniuses 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
44% · 151 game54% · 90 games
RazorGhost
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
49% · 215 games57% · 127 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
51% · 180 games50% · 165 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
46% · 464 games47% · 593 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
44% · 319 games58% · 354 games
BatriderDy
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 55%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2