Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
908 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
642 picks · 447 bans
Nature's Prophet
540 picks · 870 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 434 bans
Snapfire
482 picks · 330 bans
Death Prophet
471 picks · 1014 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% ex-HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ex-HellRaisers 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers.
Game 2prediction missed
ex-HellRaisers 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 60%
Series resultex-HellRaisers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2