DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaisersloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 662 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 471 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
556 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 525 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1108 bans
Clockwerk
476 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% ex-HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ex-HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:35
ex-HellRaisers 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Entity in 33:20.
Game 2prediction missed16:26
ex-HellRaisers 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Entity in 33:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-HellRaisers · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2