DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 25 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 20 games
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shanks · 9 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
953 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
573 picks · 922 bans
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
516 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1084 bans
Clockwerk
464 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% ex-HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:55
ex-HellRaisers 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Execration in 51:25.
Game 2prediction missed29:36
ex-HellRaisers 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Execration in 38:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-HellRaisers · 63%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2