DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaisersloss 1:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 13 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Monet · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
947 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
656 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 905 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
506 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1070 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% ex-HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:27
ex-HellRaisers 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:18.
Game 2prediction missed13:22
ex-HellRaisers 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-HellRaisers · 61%
Accuracy by game0 of 2