Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
sayuw · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 21 game
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 17 games
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
933 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 888 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
499 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
482 picks · 1053 bans
Clockwerk
455 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% ex-HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
ex-HellRaisers 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:22.
Game 2prediction missed8:19
ex-HellRaisers 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-HellRaisers · 53%
Series resultex-HellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2