The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionEEExcel Esportswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TFTeam Frostloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Excel Esports
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
Silencer
RedPanda · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
生死 · 4 games
Windranger
CatYou · 4 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
Team Frost
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
477 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 534 bans
Ringmaster
439 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
342 picks · 638 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 443 bans
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 649 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 218 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Frost
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Excel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
Excel Esports 73%Team Frost 27%
The model gave 73% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 20:20.
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Excel Esports 73%Team Frost 27%
The model gave 73% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 18:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteExcel Esports · 73%
Series resultExcel Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2