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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
50%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 790 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 359 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 250 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
343 picks · 719 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 498 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
306 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
296 picks · 622 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Execration 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAbat
49% · 248 games48% · 204 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
58% · 128 games52% · 152 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
53% · 249 games45% · 204 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkcml
51% · 285 games45% · 187 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
45% · 163 games
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct26:47
Execration 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAbat
48% · 245 games59% · 48 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawTino-
50% · 225 games44% · 166 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magicml
42% · 17 games48% · 114 games
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
56% · 260 games49% · 162 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
49% · 257 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2