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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
496 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 6 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
33%

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Red · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
302 picks · 614 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
282 picks · 350 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
241 picks · 425 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
232 picks · 180 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 375 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
194 picks · 107 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
193 picks · 601 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
188 picks · 219 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
Execration 49%496 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 22:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYowe
53% · 7 games45% · 23 games
Phantom Assassin458
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRupido
55% · 46 games55% · 25 games
TidehunterRed
Tidehunter
Oracle
OracleRR
47% · 46 games46% · 25 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
50% · 26 games
Crystal MaidenBombi
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct32:57
Execration 50%496 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYowe
58% · 61 game37% · 29 games
Ursa458
Ursa
Viper
ViperRupido
46% · 9 games51% · 56 games
MarsRed
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRR
53% · 33 games46% · 18 games
MiranaNARMAN
Mirana
little data
SnapfireBombi
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed53:26
Execration 47%496 Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYowe
50% · 10 games60% · 6 games
Anti-Mage458
Anti-Mage
Mars
MarsRupido
53% · 62 games49% · 22 games
Nature's ProphetRed
Nature's Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressRR
41% · 13 games49% · 33 games
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Shadow Shaman
48% · 24 games
OracleBombi
Oracle
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 55%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3