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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
15%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
27%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%

Army Geniuses

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
29%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 616 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 480 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
383 picks · 499 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 530 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
323 picks · 502 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 472 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Execration 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalos
46% · 118 games52% · 301 game
Tinydb-
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
49% · 216 games51% · 74 games
BrewmasterwoMy
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand KingTino-
51% · 269 games48% · 214 games
Dragon KnightAzur4
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
49% · 165 games52% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Shadow Shaman
Omniknight
OmniknightRR
52% · 23 games52% · 108 games
PugnaVarizh
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed39:23
Execration 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Execration in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
60% · 180 games42% · 48 games
Nature's ProphetwoMy
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
53% · 181 game60% · 52 games
Necrophosdb-
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTino-
46% · 204 games45% · 537 games
MarsAzur4
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
45% · 243 games51% · 174 games
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
Keeper of the Light
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
51% · 90 games49% · 87 games
UndyingVarizh
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2