Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 13 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 11 games
Army Geniuses
Tiny
NARMAN · 13 games
Grimstroke
Varizh · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
Razoroften banned
woMy · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
581 picks · 458 bans
Mars
428 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
395 picks · 520 bans
Puck
390 picks · 859 bans
Bane
376 picks · 251 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 624 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Execration 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 24:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightBob
Nature's Prophetdb-
Faceless VoidPalos
BeastmasterwoMy
Dragon KnightTino-
DoomNARMAN
MiranaShanks
MarciVarizh
WarlockRR
Game 2prediction missed
Execration 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2