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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 24 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palos · 16 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
58%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 23 games
74%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
db- · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
842 picks · 595 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
605 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 425 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
501 picks · 806 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
451 picks · 928 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
449 picks · 308 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 76%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:41
Execration 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
61% · 16 games50% · 83 games
Night StalkerinYourdreaM
Night Stalker
Tiny
TinyBob
52% · 585 games50% · 184 games
KunkkaYowe
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
50% · 281 game47% · 183 games
Keeper of the Lightdb-
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
46% · 176 games50% · 416 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
53% · 192 games
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct18:7
Execration 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBob
43% · 112 games40% · 52 games
Night StalkerinYourdreaM
Night Stalker
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
51% · 126 games46% · 131 game
Timbersawdb-
Timbersaw
Visage
VisageTino-
60% · 118 games46% · 265 games
MarsYowe
Mars
Tiny
TinyShanks
51% · 565 games50% · 427 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
67% · 46 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed30:20
Execration 50%Army Geniuses 50%
The model gave 50% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Execration in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPalos
45% · 320 games46% · 199 games
Nature's Prophetdb-
Nature's Prophet
Visage
VisageTino-
54% · 201 game46% · 263 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBob
51% · 329 games47% · 70 games
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Lifestealer
Marci
MarciShanks
51% · 463 games52% · 589 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
58% · 192 games
MiranaVarizh
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3