Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Baby Build Housewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
Bane
RR · 13 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Grimstroke
RR · 9 games
Baby Build House
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
489 picks · 451 bans
Mars
485 picks · 675 bans
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 505 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 598 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Baby Build House
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:5
Execration 73%Baby Build House 27%
The model gave 73% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:06.
Game 2prediction correct6:36
Execration 73%Baby Build House 27%
The model gave 73% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 19:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 73%
Series resultBaby Build House 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2