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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Shanks · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
25%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
0%

Bleed Esports

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
254 picks · 366 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 384 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 201 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
207 picks · 535 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
187 picks · 436 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Execration 55%Bleed Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNishababy
52% · 113 games55% · 59 games
Troll WarlordJaCkky
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
50% · 50 games47% · 66 games
ZeusMikoto
Zeus
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
47% · 40 games45% · 102 games
HoodwinkDJ
Hoodwink
Lion
LionShanks
49% · 47 games60% · 39 games
ChenPoloson
Chen
Abaddon
Abaddoncml
43% · 16 games
Game 2prediction missed12:35
Execration 52%Bleed Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNishababy
56% · 119 games52% · 44 games
Troll WarlordJaCkky
Troll Warlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTino-
34% · 42 games63% · 84 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
47% · 200 games52% · 143 games
Keeper of the LightDJ
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
45% · 53 games52% · 169 games
TechiesPoloson
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverncml
38% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2