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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 13 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
35%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 274 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 311 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 456 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
302 picks · 411 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 462 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 502 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:46
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKarma丶
49% · 164 games52% · 179 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierTino-
50% · 319 games50% · 129 games
MiranaGhost
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
48% · 142 games48% · 196 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
46% · 169 games56% · 127 games
Treant ProtectorDJ
Treant Protector
53% · 163 games
LionTims
Lion
Game 2prediction correct20:36
Execration 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
49% · 161 game50% · 188 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKarma丶
48% · 248 games60% · 56 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Sniper
SniperShanks
46% · 96 games53% · 100 games
Sand KingMac
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
46% · 214 games53% · 150 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
49% · 225 games
ClockwerkDJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 60%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2