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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 16 games
69%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 10 games
80%
Sven
Svensignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
433 picks · 398 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
408 picks · 206 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 902 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
322 picks · 365 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
287 picks · 141 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 673 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:14
Execration 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPalos
55% · 248 games56% · 35 games
Anti-MageJaCkky
Anti-Mage
Mars
MarsTino-
49% · 209 games47% · 352 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
53% · 239 games45% · 184 games
AbaddonJabz
Abaddon
Rubick
RubickShanks
48% · 90 games49% · 190 games
SnapfireNARMAN
Snapfire
Jakiro
Jakirocml
55% · 160 games46% · 185 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed33:24
Execration 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPalos
49% · 44 games51% · 200 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
47% · 345 games50% · 203 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Dazzle
DazzleTino-
42% · 59 games55% · 293 games
BeastmasterSancity
Beastmaster
Chen
Chencml
53% · 156 games54% · 145 games
AlchemistJhocam
Alchemist
Tusk
TuskShanks
50% · 407 games49% · 170 games
JakiroNARMAN
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2