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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Palos · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
55%

BOOM Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Sancity · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 19 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
JaCkky · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
NARMAN · 16 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
548 picks · 276 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
493 picks · 501 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1021 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
334 picks · 383 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 537 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 154 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
320 picks · 149 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
309 picks · 502 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head6 – 6
Model total57% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:21
Execration 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
48% · 272 games50% · 318 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
52% · 313 games51% · 247 games
Nature's ProphetSancity
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
50% · 390 games55% · 150 games
TidehunterJabz
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
46% · 210 games51% · 193 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Abaddon
Abaddoncml
48% · 175 games49% · 452 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed34:23
Execration 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
53% · 238 games63% · 163 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracBob
47% · 154 games54% · 81 game
InvokerSancity
Invoker
Axe
AxeTino-
51% · 113 games43% · 137 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
50% · 102 games47% · 275 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Silencer
Silencercml
44% · 172 games49% · 123 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 57%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2