Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
Rubick
Shanks · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
492 picks · 319 bans
Doom
449 picks · 989 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 854 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 26%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Execration 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 27:17.
Game 2prediction missed29:47
Execration 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Execration in 44:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2