Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Elder Titan
RR · 4 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
446 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
424 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 701 bans
Mars
348 picks · 612 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 310 bans
Grimstroke
296 picks · 259 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 185 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:15
Execration 40%Fnatic 60%
The model gave 60% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 39:48.
Game 2prediction missed40:20
Execration 40%Fnatic 60%
The model gave 60% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 40:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 60%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2