?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
39%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 40 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 25 games
72%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 25 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
633 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
572 picks · 923 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
566 picks · 418 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 406 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 61%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Execration 23%Gaimin Gladiators 77%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTino-
51% · 81 game46% · 18 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Slark
SlarkPalos
54% · 163 games47% · 151 game
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderBob
57% · 225 games41% · 17 games
Lone Druiddyrachyo
Lone Druid
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
52% · 36 games47% · 224 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
46% · 95 games
DisruptorSeleri
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct15:45
Execration 23%Gaimin Gladiators 77%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerPalos
39% · 30 games46% · 176 games
DoomAce
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
49% · 95 games60% · 32 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
54% · 171 game53% · 267 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickShanks
47% · 603 games58% · 276 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
44% · 148 games
SilencerSeleri
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 90%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2