WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 5 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 996 bans
Lion
380 picks · 212 bans
Mars
370 picks · 618 bans
Grimstroke
358 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 615 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
Execration 54%Invictus Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 36:40.
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Execration 54%Invictus Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2