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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
33%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
MS · 4 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
430 picks · 619 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 660 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 662 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 293 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 386 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
269 picks · 853 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Execration 64%LBZS 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoPalos
63% · 19 games57% · 51 game
Enigmaxiaofu
Enigma
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYowe
47% · 46 games46% · 79 games
LionCatYou
Lion
Pangolier
PangolierForce
45% · 33 games
Tusk
TuskRR
45% · 32 games
Game 2prediction correct26:29
Execration 62%LBZS 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPalos
54% · 37 games47% · 67 games
Nature's Prophetxiaofu
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
43% · 35 games51% · 108 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
49% · 60 games
Oracle
OracleRR
57% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 72%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2