Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
374 picks · 597 bans
Lion
358 picks · 185 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 363 bans
Void Spirit
325 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
317 picks · 688 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:25
Execration 70%Lilgun 30%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:52.
Game 2prediction correct42:25
Execration 70%Lilgun 30%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 70%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2