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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Made in Philippinesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
35%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
69%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 12 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%

Made in Philippines

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Rupido · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ken · 6 games
83%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ken · 5 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 438 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 689 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 538 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 288 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 584 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 598 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
336 picks · 496 bans
54%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Made in Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Made in Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:23
Execration 44%Made in Philippines 56%
The model gave 56% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Execration in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPalos
49% · 33 games53% · 234 games
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTino-
51% · 180 games45% · 75 games
DawnbreakerRupido
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
47% · 222 games46% · 220 games
Ember SpiritJG
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyShanks
51% · 291 game54% · 225 games
WeaverTeehee
Weaver
Warlock
WarlockRR
57% · 28 games
Game 2prediction missed44:34
Execration 44%Made in Philippines 56%
The model gave 56% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Execration in 52:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperBob
58% · 13 games50% · 209 games
TerrorbladeKen
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
51% · 130 games47% · 264 games
PuckJG
Puck
Mars
MarsPalos
49% · 303 games55% · 107 games
TuskRupido
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
44% · 213 games53% · 170 games
ClockwerkTeehee
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRR
50% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoriteMade in Philippines · 61%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2