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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAG.Indonesialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Techies
Techies
cml · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Tino- · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
cml · 3 games
33%

MAG.Indonesia

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 3 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
woMy · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
woMy · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 1 game
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 342 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 478 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 409 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
284 picks · 199 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 479 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 74%MAG.Indonesia 26%
The model gave 74% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 74%MAG.Indonesia 26%
The model gave 74% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 74%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2