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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MAG.Yololoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Bob · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%

MAG.Yolo

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
czy · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
出省 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
czy · 2 games
0%
Luna
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 654 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 357 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 796 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 416 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 355 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 561 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 67%MAG.Yolo 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction missed
Execration 67%MAG.Yolo 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo.
Game 3prediction correct
Execration 67%MAG.Yolo 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 67%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3