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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mist Walkerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
31%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
50%

Mist Walker

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Xy · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Xy · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xy · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xy · 1 game
100%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xy · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 452 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
496 picks · 694 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 532 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
403 picks · 553 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 639 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 627 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 320 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Execration 64%Mist Walker 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Mist Walker.
Game 2prediction missed
Execration 64%Mist Walker 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Mist Walker.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 64%
Series resultMist Walker 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2