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BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
31%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
17%
Bane
Bane
RR · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 9 games
11%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 22 games
68%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 16 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
543 picks · 363 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
472 picks · 574 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 588 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
417 picks · 732 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 573 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 170 bans
46%
Wraith King
Wraith King
280 picks · 354 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:20
Execration 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingPalos
51% · 189 games43% · 142 games
MorphlingKarma丶
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
55% · 214 games47% · 413 games
MarsEnryu
Mars
Magnus
MagnusTino-
53% · 96 games57% · 245 games
MiranaJing
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
50% · 175 games
Disruptor
DisruptorRR
47% · 126 games
Game 2prediction missed28:27
Execration 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPalos
little data38% · 52 games
Drow RangerKarma丶
Drow Ranger
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
59% · 73 games55% · 120 games
LeshracEnryu
Leshrac
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTino-
46% · 29 games43% · 88 games
Earth SpiritJing
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
51% · 64 games
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRR
58% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 70%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2