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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
50%

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 11 games
45%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 446 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 692 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
462 picks · 286 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 525 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
408 picks · 560 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 646 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 613 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 311 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 17%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total57% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Execration 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
42% · 38 games56% · 152 games
PangolierEnryu
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
46% · 121 game47% · 97 games
ClockwerkChuaN
Clockwerk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTino-
57% · 32 games53% · 76 games
Keeper of the LightSe
Keeper of the Light
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
50% · 134 games
Warlock
WarlockRR
little data
Game 2prediction correct31:26
Execration 55%Neon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalos
52% · 18 games45% · 122 games
TimbersawEnryu
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperBob
61% · 55 games47% · 181 game
TinyChuaN
Tiny
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTino-
47% · 25 games48% · 204 games
SnapfireSe
Snapfire
Mars
MarsShanks
50% · 316 games
Undying
UndyingRR
53% · 93 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 57%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2