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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 18 games
39%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
69%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 12 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 11 games
55%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 7 games
43%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 449 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 679 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 544 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
404 picks · 286 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 596 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 561 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 632 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 784 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 23%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:31
Execration 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
40% · 113 games52% · 164 games
Chaos KnightFortuneSoul
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyBob
42% · 196 games61% · 154 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTino-
41% · 138 games59% · 258 games
MiranaChuaN
Mirana
Monkey King
Monkey KingShanks
52% · 149 games54% · 35 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRR
35% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Execration 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 21:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
44% · 76 games47% · 92 games
UrsaFortuneSoul
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
50% · 68 games60% · 163 games
DoomEnryu
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
32% · 51 game60% · 31 game
WarlockSe
Warlock
Tiny
TinyBob
49% · 107 games60% · 138 games
Nyx AssassinChuaN
Nyx Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireRR
42% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2