BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
Tinysignature
Palos · 9 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 9 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
667 picks · 522 bans
Marci
469 picks · 717 bans
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 620 bans
Puck
443 picks · 906 bans
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 415 bans
Zeus
300 picks · 391 bans
Razor
280 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
278 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 21%
Hero pool strength63% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Execration 60%Neon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackPalos
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
PangolierBob
EnigmaEnryu
UndyingTino-
TuskPlayHard
MiranaShanks
ChenSe
WarlockRR
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Execration 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPalos
Faceless VoidFortuneSoul
Primal BeastTino-
DawnbreakerEnryu
Void SpiritBob
ChenSe
EnchantressShanks
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
LichRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2