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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
25%
Bane
Bane
RR · 14 games
36%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
27%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 266 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 545 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
326 picks · 408 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 571 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 328 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
294 picks · 460 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 377 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
267 picks · 494 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 35%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
Execration 28%Nigma Galaxy SEA 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Execration in 34:54.
Game 2prediction correct7:57
Execration 28%Nigma Galaxy SEA 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 40:13.
Game 3prediction missed30:25
Execration 28%Nigma Galaxy SEA 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Execration in 37:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 72%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3