?
arrow_backBack to match
Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
RR · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
33%

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
89%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 982 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
415 picks · 600 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 663 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 629 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
322 picks · 286 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 373 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
259 picks · 178 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
256 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:36
Execration 51%Omega Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoPalos
52% · 35 games46% · 27 games
ViperTino-
Viper
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
50% · 55 games50% · 44 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerYowe
59% · 24 games45% · 25 games
AlchemistSam_H
Alchemist
Oracle
OracleRR
52% · 56 games48% · 74 games
Tuskcml
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct37:46
Execration 47%Omega Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 52:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPalos
45% · 45 games47% · 48 games
IoTino-
Io
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYowe
48% · 71 game52% · 161 game
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierForce
55% · 64 games57% · 21 game
SlardarSam_H
Slardar
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
53% · 61 game32% · 11 games
Spirit Breakercml
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 53%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2