?
arrow_backBack to match
OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Omega Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

Omega Esports

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 440 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 526 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 340 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 347 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 247 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
238 picks · 403 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 22%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total65% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:34
Execration 65%Omega Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:42.
Game 2prediction missed9:47
Execration 65%Omega Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 29:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2