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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 16 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 11 games
55%

Omega Esports

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Sam_H · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Sam_H · 4 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
cml · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
269 picks · 148 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 351 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
254 picks · 511 bans
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
252 picks · 388 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 328 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
225 picks · 485 bans
62%
Tiny
Tiny
222 picks · 295 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
218 picks · 229 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 15%
Hero pool strength59% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:28
Execration 62%Omega Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMarb
39% · 27 games45% · 198 games
GrimstrokeEren
Grimstroke
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
53% · 70 games
Mars
MarsTino-
62% · 87 games
Disruptor
DisruptorRR
67% · 14 games
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Execration 63%Omega Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMarb
50% · 38 games51% · 137 games
Nyx AssassinEren
Nyx Assassin
Lina
LinaBob
56% · 39 games
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTino-
54% · 20 games
Snapfire
SnapfireRR
36% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2